Welcome to Complex Machinery, a newsletter about the intersection of AI and risk. It occasionally dips into related matters like complexity, business models, emerging tech, and marketplaces.

(While the newsletter covers AI, there are no technical deep-dives. This is higher-level, AI's-impact-on-business-and-society material.)

If you're looking for more details, read on.

If someone pointed you to this site and you just want to subscribe, you can do that right here.

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"AI, risk, and related matters?" That feels like a grab-bag of topics

It may look that way from a certain perspective, but those topics are all closely related:

• Risk and complexity go hand-in-hand. Complexity leads to all kinds of incidents.
• AI is my field of expertise, so I'm very much in-tune with the risk/reward tradeoffs involved.
• AI introduces novel risk exposures, and novel arrangements of existing exposures, because it is so no and poorly understood.
• I started my career in finance, which has a lot of parallels to The Field We Now Call AI (and used to call predictive analytics, data science, then machine learning, then AI, and now AI again because generative): it's all about analyzing data for fun and profit while managing your risk.
• I am something of a broken record because I keep pointing out how the rise of computers on Wall Street will tell us a ton about how AI will impact other fields. You will see mention of this in pretty much every other issue.

"Risk?" Isn't that just about bad stuff happening?

The term "risk" has several definitions, which vary based on the context. While some popular definitions focus on what goes wrong, risk is really about upside as well as downside. (Hence why I often say that "risk management" should be renamed "opportunity management." But that’s a story for another day…)

Tell me more about the format.

Complex Machinery lands two or three times a month. Issues run anywhere from 1200-2000 words.

Some issues are a grab-bag of short segments, while others are essays.

That's a lot to read. Got anything shorter?

Funny you should ask! In Other News is my weekly list of curated links. Perfect for skimming while you're on-the-go.

(In Other News started as a section of Complex Machinery and now it's spun off into its own newsletter.)

Who's behind this newsletter?

Complex Machinery is written by Q McCallum. You can read more about me on my website but the gist is:

I've spent my career in and around the emerging-tech space, and I've been in (The Field We Currently Call) AI since the early days of "predictive analytics" and "Big Data." During this time I’ve done everything from strategy to R&D to operations to due diligence.

These days my work sits at the intersection of risk and AI. This newsletter is a space for me to share my thoughts on that topic.

So are you some kind of AI crank? A skeptic?

Not at all.

I'm an experienced industry practitioner who works on things like due diligence and surfacing use cases.

I hold high hopes for what AI can achieve. I'm also willing to point out when AI isn't living up to expectations. Or more importantly, when it's not living up to the marketing materials.

Aha. So this newsletter is your marketing vehicle.

Only in the sense that what you see here reflects what I think about the AI space.

I occasionally mention other projects I'm working on, but that's about it.

If you'd like to retain my consulting services – imagine the kind of thinking that goes into the newsletter, but applied to your specific business challenges and concerns – you're welcome to contact me.

But if you're looking for a typical brochure-style newsletter, in which every issue is a thinly-veiled advert … I don't have that. I don't like to read those. I sure as hell don't want to write one.

I'm almost sold. Before I subscribe, do you have a list of highlights I can browse?

Some of my favorites include:

• #047 - "What's left after it all falls apart": Is genAI a bubble? If so, and should it pop anytime soon, this will serve as your guide.
• #043 - "Taming the delightful chaos": What can the computerization of Wall Street teach us about bringing AI into the workplace? I'd written about that topic here and there over the years, but this piece gave me the opportunity to put it all in one place. (This issue also ran as an article on O'Reilly Radar.)
• #002 - "It's still a wild animal": There's a common problem with LLMs: a little something I call The Random™.
• #018 - "Robot jobs": Sussing out when AI is a good fit for a task, using the humble self-service kiosk as a guide.
• #010 - "The looming AI debt wall": There's the question of whether AI can ever live up to its promises. Will it make good before that debt comes due? (I wrote this long before genAI companies started taking on real financial debt, like bonds and loans. It certainly reads differently in light of that change.)
• #027 - "A difference of time": Companies selling genAI are focused on the possible-future capabilities of the technology. Too bad they keep talking about it like it's already a present-day reality.
• #033 - "GenAI is an executive's best friend": Why executives love AI, and why they probably want to pull back a bit.
• #022 - "Does this count?": Can we trust when a computer says that something has happened? Maybe … but we should have a think. And leave room for doubt.
• #013 - "Blue screen for Armageddon" and #014 - "Embers and ashes": A two-part analysis of the CrowdStrike incident, which was a harsh lesson in risk and complexity. When everything's connected, one small disturbance can have widespread impact.
• #017 - "Stacking the deck": My recurring theme of "the rise of robots on Wall Street tells us a ton about what'll happen when AI enters other fields."
• #029 - "Setting it in motion": What history teaches us about giving things away for free, and how that relates to the news about DeepSeek giving away its "R1" model.

If that sounds interesting to you, you can subscribe here.

(Be sure to click on the confirmation link in your e-mail.)

What's your privacy policy?

The privacy policy is simple:

I only use your e-mail address to send you the newsletter.

I don't share your e-mail address with anyone. I don't rent or sell it. I don't employ any of the other skeezy euphemisms marketers employ for "showing little respect for your contact information."

Where else can I find your work?

Complex Machinery – here – is the best spot. If you like what I have to say, this space is updated most frequently.

Still, if you can't get enough of my thoughts, you can check out:

• My book Twin Wolves: Balancing risk and reward to make the most of AI is a short, executive-level read on bringing AI into company. Spoiler alert: it's about using risk-taking and risk management as guides.
• In Other News is my weekly list of curated links. You can see this as a companion piece to Complex Machinery.
• My blog (not updated as much, but the archives go back a long ways)
• My O'Reilly Radar articles are longer reads on topics as varied as remote work, N-sided marketplaces, automated machine learning, and navigating the pandemic.
• My one-pager websites, such as "Will AI Help Here?" and "How Do I Do AI?"
• My occasional post on Bluesky at @qethanm.bsky.social or, if you insist, on LinkedIn.

I also have a couple of other projects in the works. I'll mention those in the newsletter as they land.

I'd like to contact you about other matters

To discuss professional (consulting) services – working with your executive on AI strategy, use cases, and risk management – I'll point you to my website.

For general inquiries, that site also has a contact form.

I'm interested. How do I read Complex Machinery?

You're welcome to browse the archives online, or subscribe below to get the newsletter in your inbox.

(Be sure to click on the confirmation link in your e-mail. If you don't see it within a few minutes, it's probably in your spam folder.)